The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson has released his season projections, and he sees Detroit bouncing back in a major way, penciling the Lions in for a 12-5 record and predicting they will win the NFC North. The projection comes after a difficult 9-8 campaign last season that saw the team fall from a 15-2 powerhouse to last place in the division. Robinson’s reasoning centers on a favorable schedule, noting that Detroit’s last-place finish grants them the league’s easiest slate of games. Combined with the existing talent on both sides of the ball, he views this as a prime opportunity for a bounce-back season.
He went further, calling the Lions his dark horse Super Bowl pick, a label that has drawn mixed reactions given the team’s recent struggles. The discussion around Detroit’s prospects quickly shifts to the state of the offensive line, which was once the identity of the team. The unit is facing significant upheaval this offseason, with All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell moving to the other side of the line. There is open competition at guard, a rookie expected to man the right tackle spot, and now, uncertainty at center.
Detroit made a targeted free-agent signing to stabilize the interior, bringing in a player they believed fit both their scheme and their desired toughness. However, an injury has clouded his availability, leaving the team unsure when he will be back on the field. This is a critical concern because the offensive line was the bedrock of the team’s success during their 15-2 run, and the team has not sufficiently addressed the wave of changes along the front. The concern is amplified by the quarterback under center.
While Jared Goff has proven he can play like a top-10 quarterback when protected, he is not mobile enough to escape interior pressure. Collapsing protection up the middle could be poison for the entire offense, limiting the effectiveness of playmakers like Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams before they even get the ball. Beyond the line, Detroit is adjusting to a new offensive coordinator.
Drew Petzing enters his 14th NFL season and arrives after three years as the Arizona Cardinals’ offensive coordinator, with prior stops in Cleveland and Minnesota. He has experience operating a high-volume passing offense and is considered a well-regarded hire, especially compared to the failed tenure of John Morton who replaced Ben Johnson last year. Petzing’s system should allow Gibbs to thrive. With David Montgomery no longer there to split touches, Gibbs is expected to be more involved in both the running and passing game, capable of lining up in the backfield or the slot to exploit mismatches.
The question remains whether the new coordinator can replicate his success with different personnel and a reshuffled offensive front. The division race itself is expected to be competitive. Green Bay faces the ninth-hardest schedule and has questions surrounding its roster, while Chicago, despite a talented roster, has the seventh-hardest schedule. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, meanwhile, are not seen as a threat in the North.
Analysts remain skeptical of Caleb Williams in Chicago, questioning whether he has the mentality to know when to throw the ball away rather than trying to extend every play. Comparisons were drawn between Williams and Murray, noting that Murray was once considered a top-10 quarterback when he led Arizona to the playoffs, and questioning what evidence exists that Williams is currently better than him. Despite the concerns, Detroit is still viewed as the team to beat in the division. The combination of Goff’s stability, Gibbs’ match-up potential, and the easiest schedule in the league makes them the safest pick.
However, the Super Bowl conversation may be premature. The Lions don’t need to become more talented, they need to remain structurally sound. A 12-5 season is possible, and a division title leans in their favor, but a deep playoff run depends entirely on the offensive line staying healthy and functional. If the center position and interior protection become weaknesses, Detroit could watch its offensive identity unravel once again.
The talent is there to win the North, but one collapsing position could be the difference between being a contender and another disappointment.
