The early tracking for DC’s upcoming Supergirl movie is raising alarms inside Warner Bros. , with projections suggesting a domestic opening weekend of just $47 to $65 million. The full domestic theatrical run is projected as low as $107 to $181 million, according to industry analysts. Those numbers place Supergirl in the same territory as The Marvels, which became one of the most infamous box office bombs in Marvel history.
For context, last year’s Supermanopened to roughly $122 million domestically and went on to cross $600 million worldwide. The low end of Supergirl’s projected debut is less than half of what Superman earned on day one. The film, which cost an estimated $245 million including production and marketing, would likely need around $425 million worldwide just to break even, per one analyst. Warner Bros.
is reportedly privately hoping for $500 million or more. The gap between those projectionsand that financial requirement is keeping studio executives up at night. The controversy around the film has centered on its star, Milly Alcock, who was cast as Kara Zor-El after gaining attention for her role in House of the Dragon. Alcock, now in her early twenties, has faced criticism online since her casting was announced, including complaints about her appearance and comparisons to Game of Thrones alumna Emilia Clarke, whom some fans deemed more fitting for a fantasy lead role.
Despite that early backlash, Alcock was widely considered a success ithat series, and Warner Bros. and DC Studios leader James Gunn chose her to lead the second film in the new DC Universe slate
The film itself presents a darker take on the character than audiences may remember from previous adaptations. James Gunn has described this version of Supergirl as “punk rock, messy, damaged,” per his own public statements. The plot follows a more jaded Kara who gets pulled into a violent revenge mission, a departure from the classic sweet, sunny portrayal many fans grew up with.
Some fans have praised the creative choice as bold, while others have criticized DC for altering a beloved character before audiences have fully embraced this new cinematic universe
The friction intensified after a series of recent interviews with Alcock. In one exchange, she commented on what she described as a“weird ownership of women’s bodies” by fans,addressing criticism she has received simply for existing as a woman in a major franchise. When some fans pushed back on that comment, she doubled down, saying the angry reaction proved her point. She also mocked her critics, describing them as “faceless accounts” of the“dad of four, Christian” variety,and called that response“hilarious.
” Fox News, Page Six, and the New York Post quickly picked up the story, amplifying the controversy within days
Alcock also said she expects backlash simply because she is a woman in the franchise, a statement that some interpreted as a preemptive dismissal of all criticism as sexism, while others saw it as a fair acknowledgment of real online harassment. The timing of her comments has been widely noted as unfortunate, arriving weeks before the film’s theatrical release
The numbers suggest the controversy is having a measurable effect. According to tracking data cited in reports, awareness of the movie has held flat at around 53 percent, but audience interest has slipped from 48 percent down to 46 percent, after having been as high as 51 percent in an earlier read. In other words, more people are hearing about the film, yet fewer people want to see it.
This reverse trend is considered one of the worst possible signs heading into a release
Warner Bros. has reportedly responded by inserting Superman into Supergirl TV spots in an attempt to prop up interest, a move that industry observers say signals a lack of confidence in the standalone film. Meanwhile, DC co-heads have reportedly attempted damage control, with one reportedly calling Alcock personally to reassure her. There was also a reported anecdote about an executive who became emotional when Alcock first appeared in the Supergirl suit.
James Gunn also publicly disputed a reported $200 million figure for the film’s budget, calling it“not even a little bit true,” but he did not provide an official number. That leaves the film’s true cost somewhat unclear, with analysts estimating higher amounts when marketing is included
Many observers have drawn comparisons between Alcock’s situation and that of Rachel Zegler, the star of Disney’s 2023 Snow White remake. Before that film’s release, Zegler made public comments calling the original 1937 animated film’s love story“weird,” noting the prince“literally stalks” the princess. She also said the modern version would not feature a prince rescuing the heroine, drawing sharp backlash from conservative audiencesand beyond.
Snow White opened to about $42 million domesticallyand finished with roughly $200 million worldwide against an estimated production cost of over $270 million. Reports indicated the film lost Disney between $115 and $170 million. A producer’s son publicly blamed Zegler’s politics for hurting the film’s box office, though that remains an individual opinion rather than an official studio assessment
The pattern observers now point to is similar: a young star publicly at odds with portions of the audience before release, followed by a collapse in projected interest and a disappointing box office result. Some fans who generally support female-led superhero films have also expressed concern that the Supergirl marketing and Alcock’s comments could narrow the film’s appeal, unlike films such as Barbie or Wonder Woman, which invited a broad audience in.
They point to The Marvels and The Acolyte as recent examples of high-profile projects with female leads that underperformed or were canceled in similar environmentsin the context of online culture wars
Others caution that explanations like“go woke, go broke” are too simplistic. They note broader factors including superhero fatigue, an overcrowded release calendar, weak marketing, and lingering damage to DC’s brand from previous mismanaged films. Tracking is also widely described as an imperfect predictor, not a destiny. Superman itself exceeded expectations last year, and Supergirl is based on a comic book, Woman of Tomorrow, that is genuinely beloved among readers.
Good word of mouth could still turn the film’s fortunes after release
Supergirl is scheduled to hit theaters on June 26th. Whether it becomes a redemption story or a repeat of the Snow White scenario remains to be seen.
